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arXiv:2511.12147v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modeling normal behavior in dynamic, nonlinear time series data is challenging for effective anomaly detection. Traditional methods, such as nearest neighbor and clustering approaches, often depend on rigid assumptions, such as a predefined number of reliable neighbors or clusters, which frequently break down in complex temporal scenarios. To address these limitations, we introduce the Granular-ball One-Class Network (GBOC), a novel approach based on a data-adaptive representation called Granular-ball Vector Data Description (GVDD). GVDD partitions the latent space into compact, high-density regions represented by granular-balls, which are generated through a density-guided hierarchical splitting process and refined by removing noisy structures. Each granular-ball serves as a prototype for local normal behavior, naturally positioning itself between individual instances and clusters while preserving the local topological structure of the sample set. During training, GBOC improves the compactness of representations by aligning samples with their nearest granular-ball centers. During inference, anomaly scores are computed based on the distance to the nearest granular-ball. By focusing on dense, high-quality regions and significantly reducing the number of prototypes, GBOC delivers both robustness and efficiency in anomaly detection. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method, highlighting its ability to handle the challenges of time series anomaly detection.

arXiv:2511.12180v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Contrastive learning has emerged as a cornerstone of unsupervised representation learning across vision, language, and graph domains, with InfoNCE as its dominant objective. Despite its empirical success, the theoretical underpinnings of InfoNCE remain limited. In this work, we introduce an explicit feature space to model augmented views of samples and a transition probability matrix to capture data augmentation dynamics. We demonstrate that InfoNCE optimizes the probability of two views sharing the same source toward a constant target defined by this matrix, naturally inducing feature clustering in the representation space. Leveraging this insight, we propose Scaled Convergence InfoNCE (SC-InfoNCE), a novel loss function that introduces a tunable convergence target to flexibly control feature similarity alignment. By scaling the target matrix, SC-InfoNCE enables flexible control over feature similarity alignment, allowing the training objective to better match the statistical properties of downstream data. Experiments on benchmark datasets, including image, graph, and text tasks, show that SC-InfoNCE consistently achieves strong and reliable performance across diverse domains.

arXiv:2511.12234v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Coral bleaching is a major concern for marine ecosystems; more than half of the world's coral reefs have either bleached or died over the past three decades. Increasing sea surface temperatures, along with various spatiotemporal environmental factors, are considered the primary reasons behind coral bleaching. The statistical and machine learning communities have focused on multiple aspects of the environment in detail. However, the literature on various stochastic modeling approaches for assessing coral bleaching is extremely scarce. Data-driven strategies are crucial for effective reef management, and this review article provides an overview of existing statistical and machine learning methods for assessing coral bleaching. Statistical frameworks, including simple regression models, generalized linear models, generalized additive models, Bayesian regression models, spatiotemporal models, and resilience indicators, such as Fisher's Information and Variance Index, are commonly used to explore how different environmental stressors influence coral bleaching. On the other hand, machine learning methods, including random forests, decision trees, support vector machines, and spatial operators, are more popular for detecting nonlinear relationships, analyzing high-dimensional data, and allowing integration of heterogeneous data from diverse sources. In addition to summarizing these models, we also discuss potential data-driven future research directions, with a focus on constructing statistical and machine learning models in specific contexts related to coral bleaching.

arXiv:2511.12261v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Incomplete multi-view unsupervised feature selection (IMUFS), which aims to identify representative features from unlabeled multi-view data containing missing values, has received growing attention in recent years. Despite their promising performance, existing methods face three key challenges: 1) by focusing solely on the view-missing problem, they are not well-suited to the more prevalent mixed-missing scenario in practice, where some samples lack entire views or only partial features within views; 2) insufficient utilization of consistency and diversity across views limits the effectiveness of feature selection; and 3) the lack of theoretical analysis makes it unclear how feature selection and data imputation interact during the joint learning process. Being aware of these, we propose CLIM-FS, a novel IMUFS method designed to address the mixed-missing problem. Specifically, we integrate the imputation of both missing views and variables into a feature selection model based on nonnegative orthogonal matrix factorization, enabling the joint learning of feature selection and adaptive data imputation. Furthermore, we fully leverage consensus cluster structure and cross-view local geometrical structure to enhance the synergistic learning process. We also provide a theoretical analysis to clarify the underlying collaborative mechanism of CLIM-FS. Experimental results on eight real-world multi-view datasets demonstrate that CLIM-FS outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

arXiv:2511.12309v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Self-consistency (SC) is a widely used test-time inference technique for improving performance in chain-of-thought reasoning. It involves generating multiple responses, or samples from a large language model (LLM) and selecting the most frequent answer. This procedure can naturally be viewed as a majority vote or empirical mode estimation. Despite its effectiveness, SC is prohibitively expensive at scale when naively applied to datasets, and it lacks a unified theoretical treatment of sample efficiency and scaling behavior. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of SC's scaling behavior and its variants, drawing on mode estimation and voting theory. We derive and empirically validate power law scaling for self-consistency across datasets, and analyze the sample efficiency for fixed-allocation and dynamic-allocation sampling schemes. From these insights, we introduce Blend-ASC, a novel variant of self-consistency that dynamically allocates samples to questions during inference, achieving state-of-the-art sample efficiency. Our approach uses 6.8x fewer samples than vanilla SC on average, outperforming both fixed- and dynamic-allocation SC baselines, thereby demonstrating the superiority of our approach in terms of efficiency. In contrast to existing variants, Blend-ASC is hyperparameter-free and can fit an arbitrary sample budget, ensuring it can be easily applied to any self-consistency application.

arXiv:2511.12545v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Stochastic multi-objective optimization (SMOOP) requires ranking multivariate distributions; yet, most empirical studies perform scalarization, which loses information and is unreliable. Based on the optimal transport theory, we introduce the center-outward q-dominance relation and prove it implies strong first-order stochastic dominance (FSD). Also, we develop an empirical test procedure based on q-dominance, and derive an explicit sample size threshold, $n^*(\delta)$, to control the Type I error. We verify the usefulness of our approach in two scenarios: (1) as a ranking method in hyperparameter tuning; (2) as a selection method in multi-objective optimization algorithms. For the former, we analyze the final stochastic Pareto sets of seven multi-objective hyperparameter tuners on the YAHPO-MO benchmark tasks with q-dominance, which allows us to compare these tuners when the expected hypervolume indicator (HVI, the most common performance metric) of the Pareto sets becomes indistinguishable. For the latter, we replace the mean value-based selection in the NSGA-II algorithm with $q$-dominance, which shows a superior convergence rate on noise-augmented ZDT benchmark problems. These results establish center-outward q-dominance as a principled, tractable foundation for seeking truly stochastically dominant solutions for SMOOPs.

arXiv:2511.12592v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Low latency event-selection (trigger) algorithms are essential components of Large Hadron Collider (LHC) operation. Modern machine learning (ML) models have shown great offline performance as classifiers and could improve trigger performance, thereby improving downstream physics analyses. However, inference on such large models does not satisfy the $40\text{MHz}$ online latency constraint at the LHC. In this work, we propose \texttt{PHAZE}, a novel framework built on cryptographic techniques like hashing and zero-knowledge machine learning (zkML) to achieve low latency inference, via a certifiable, early-exit mechanism from an arbitrarily large baseline model. We lay the foundations for such a framework to achieve nanosecond-order latency and discuss its inherent advantages, such as built-in anomaly detection, within the scope of LHC triggers, as well as its potential to enable a dynamic low-level trigger in the future.

arXiv:2511.12659v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The fundamental theorem of statistical learning states that binary PAC learning is governed by a single parameter -- the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension -- which determines both learnability and sample complexity. Extending this to multiclass classification has long been challenging, since Natarajan's work in the late 80s proposing the Natarajan dimension (Nat) as a natural analogue of VC. Daniely and Shalev-Shwartz (2014) introduced the DS dimension, later shown by Brukhim et al. (2022) to characterize multiclass learnability. Brukhim et al. also showed that Nat and DS can diverge arbitrarily, suggesting that multiclass learning is governed by DS rather than Nat. We show that agnostic multiclass PAC sample complexity is in fact governed by two distinct dimensions. Specifically, we prove nearly tight agnostic sample complexity bounds that, up to log factors, take the form $\frac{DS^{1.5}}{\epsilon} + \frac{Nat}{\epsilon^2}$ where $\epsilon$ is the excess risk. This bound is tight up to a $\sqrt{DS}$ factor in the first term, nearly matching known $Nat/\epsilon^2$ and $DS/\epsilon$ lower bounds. The first term reflects the DS-controlled regime, while the second shows that the Natarajan dimension still dictates asymptotic behavior for small $\epsilon$. Thus, unlike binary or online classification -- where a single dimension (VC or Littlestone) controls both phenomena -- multiclass learning inherently involves two structural parameters. Our technical approach departs from traditional agnostic learning methods based on uniform convergence or reductions to realizable cases. A key ingredient is a novel online procedure based on a self-adaptive multiplicative-weights algorithm performing a label-space reduction, which may be of independent interest.

arXiv:2511.12695v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Federated Learning (FL) enables decentralized, privacy-preserving model training but struggles to balance global generalization and local personalization due to non-identical data distributions across clients. Personalized Fine-Tuning (PFT), a popular post-hoc solution, fine-tunes the final global model locally but often overfits to skewed client distributions or fails under domain shifts. We propose adapting Linear Probing followed by full Fine-Tuning (LP-FT), a principled centralized strategy for alleviating feature distortion (Kumar et al., 2022), to the FL setting. Through systematic evaluation across seven datasets and six PFT variants, we demonstrate LP-FT's superiority in balancing personalization and generalization. Our analysis uncovers federated feature distortion, a phenomenon where local fine-tuning destabilizes globally learned features, and theoretically characterizes how LP-FT mitigates this via phased parameter updates. We further establish conditions (e.g., partial feature overlap, covariate-concept shift) under which LP-FT outperforms standard fine-tuning, offering actionable guidelines for deploying robust personalization in FL.

arXiv:2511.12760v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce Conformal Online Learning of Koopman embeddings (COLoKe), a novel framework for adaptively updating Koopman-invariant representations of nonlinear dynamical systems from streaming data. Our modeling approach combines deep feature learning with multistep prediction consistency in the lifted space, where the dynamics evolve linearly. To prevent overfitting, COLoKe employs a conformal-style mechanism that shifts the focus from evaluating the conformity of new states to assessing the consistency of the current Koopman model. Updates are triggered only when the current model's prediction error exceeds a dynamically calibrated threshold, allowing selective refinement of the Koopman operator and embedding. Empirical results on benchmark dynamical systems demonstrate the effectiveness of COLoKe in maintaining long-term predictive accuracy while significantly reducing unnecessary updates and avoiding overfitting.

arXiv:2511.12803v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A finite-horizon variant of the quickest change detection (QCD) problem that is of relevance to learning in non-stationary environments is studied. The metric characterizing false alarms is the probability of a false alarm occurring before the horizon ends. The metric that characterizes the delay is \emph{latency}, which is the smallest value such that the probability that detection delay exceeds this value is upper bounded to a predetermined latency level. The objective is to minimize the latency (at a given latency level), while maintaining a low false alarm probability. Under the pre-specified latency and false alarm levels, a universal lower bound on the latency, which any change detection procedure needs to satisfy, is derived. Change detectors are then developed, which are order-optimal in terms of the horizon. The case where the pre- and post-change distributions are known is considered first, and then the results are generalized to the non-parametric case when they are unknown except that they are sub-Gaussian with different means. Simulations are provided to validate the theoretical results.

arXiv:2511.12836v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sampling from a target distribution induced by training data is central to Bayesian learning, with Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) serving as a key tool for scalable posterior sampling and decentralized variants enabling learning when data are distributed across a network of agents. This paper introduces DIGing-SGLD, a decentralized SGLD algorithm designed for scalable Bayesian learning in multi-agent systems operating over time-varying networks. Existing decentralized SGLD methods are restricted to static network topologies, and many exhibit steady-state sampling bias caused by network effects, even when full batches are used. DIGing-SGLD overcomes these limitations by integrating Langevin-based sampling with the gradient-tracking mechanism of the DIGing algorithm, originally developed for decentralized optimization over time-varying networks, thereby enabling efficient and bias-free sampling without a central coordinator. To our knowledge, we provide the first finite-time non-asymptotic Wasserstein convergence guarantees for decentralized SGLD-based sampling over time-varying networks, with explicit constants. Under standard strong convexity and smoothness assumptions, DIGing-SGLD achieves geometric convergence to an $O(\sqrt{\eta})$ neighborhood of the target distribution, where $\eta$ is the stepsize, with dependence on the target accuracy matching the best-known rates for centralized and static-network SGLD algorithms using constant stepsize. Numerical experiments on Bayesian linear and logistic regression validate the theoretical results and demonstrate the strong empirical performance of DIGing-SGLD under dynamically evolving network conditions.

arXiv:2511.13049v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study a matrix completion problem where both the ground truth $R$ matrix and the unknown sampling distribution $P$ over observed entries are low-rank matrices, and \textit{share a common subspace}. We assume that a large amount $M$ of \textit{unlabeled} data drawn from the sampling distribution $P$ is available, together with a small amount $N$ of labeled data drawn from the same distribution and noisy estimates of the corresponding ground truth entries. This setting is inspired by recommender systems scenarios where the unlabeled data corresponds to `implicit feedback' (consisting in interactions such as purchase, click, etc. ) and the labeled data corresponds to the `explicit feedback', consisting of interactions where the user has given an explicit rating to the item. Leveraging powerful results from the theory of low-rank subspace recovery, together with classic generalization bounds for matrix completion models, we show error bounds consisting of a sum of two error terms scaling as $\widetilde{O}\left(\sqrt{\frac{nd}{M}}\right)$ and $\widetilde{O}\left(\sqrt{\frac{dr}{N}}\right)$ respectively, where $d$ is the rank of $P$ and $r$ is the rank of $M$. In synthetic experiments, we confirm that the true generalization error naturally splits into independent error terms corresponding to the estimations of $P$ and and the ground truth matrix $\ground$ respectively. In real-life experiments on Douban and MovieLens with most explicit ratings removed, we demonstrate that the method can outperform baselines relying only on the explicit ratings, demonstrating that our assumptions provide a valid toy theoretical setting to study the interaction between explicit and implicit feedbacks in recommender systems.

arXiv:2511.13199v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In a multivariate nonparametric regression setting we construct explicit asymptotic uniform confidence bands for centered purely random forests. Since the most popular example in this class of random forests, namely the uniformly centered purely random forests, is well known to suffer from suboptimal rates, we propose a new type of purely random forests, called the Ehrenfest centered purely random forests, which achieve minimax optimal rates. Our main confidence band theorem applies to both random forests. The proof is based on an interpretation of random forests as generalized U-Statistics together with a Gaussian approximation of the supremum of empirical processes. Our theoretical findings are illustrated in simulation examples.

arXiv:2511.13229v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The manifold hypothesis posits that high-dimensional data typically resides on low-dimensional sub spaces. In this paper, we assume manifold hypothesis to investigate graph-based semi-supervised learning methods. In particular, we examine Laplace Learning in the Wasserstein space, extending the classical notion of graph-based semi-supervised learning algorithms from finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces to an infinite-dimensional setting. To achieve this, we prove variational convergence of a discrete graph p- Dirichlet energy to its continuum counterpart. In addition, we characterize the Laplace-Beltrami operator on asubmanifold of the Wasserstein space. Finally, we validate the proposed theoretical framework through numerical experiments conducted on benchmark datasets, demonstrating the consistency of our classification performance in high-dimensional settings.

arXiv:2511.13237v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in deep learning have improved multivariate time series (MTS) classification and regression by capturing complex patterns, but their lack of transparency hinders decision-making. Explainable AI (XAI) methods offer partial insights, yet often fall short of conveying the full decision space. Counterfactual Explanations (CE) provide a promising alternative, but current approaches typically prioritize either accuracy, proximity or sparsity -- rarely all -- limiting their practical value. To address this, we propose CONFETTI, a novel multi-objective CE method for MTS. CONFETTI identifies key MTS subsequences, locates a counterfactual target, and optimally modifies the time series to balance prediction confidence, proximity and sparsity. This method provides actionable insights with minimal changes, improving interpretability, and decision support. CONFETTI is evaluated on seven MTS datasets from the UEA archive, demonstrating its effectiveness in various domains. CONFETTI consistently outperforms state-of-the-art CE methods in its optimization objectives, and in six other metrics from the literature, achieving $\geq10\%$ higher confidence while improving sparsity in $\geq40\%$.

arXiv:2511.13394v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian parameter inference for complex stochastic simulators is challenging due to intractable likelihood functions. Existing simulation-based inference methods often require large number of simulations and become costly to use in high-dimensional parameter spaces or in problems with partially uninformative outputs. We propose a new method for differentiable simulators that delivers accurate posterior inference with substantially reduced runtimes. Building on the Optimization Monte Carlo framework, our approach reformulates stochastic simulation as deterministic optimization problems. Gradient-based methods are then applied to efficiently navigate toward high-density posterior regions and avoid wasteful simulations in low-probability areas. A JAX-based implementation further enhances the performance through vectorization of key method components. Extensive experiments, including high-dimensional parameter spaces, uninformative outputs, multiple observations and multimodal posteriors show that our method consistently matches, and often exceeds, the accuracy of state-of-the-art approaches, while reducing the runtime by a substantial margin.

arXiv:2511.13421v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While data scaling laws of large language models (LLMs) have been widely examined in the one-pass regime with massive corpora, their form under limited data and repeated epochs remains largely unexplored. This paper presents a theoretical analysis of how a common workaround, training for multiple epochs on the same dataset, reshapes the data scaling laws in linear regression. Concretely, we ask: to match the performance of training on a dataset of size $N$ for $K$ epochs, how much larger must a dataset be if the model is trained for only one pass? We quantify this using the \textit{effective reuse rate} of the data, $E(K, N)$, which we define as the multiplicative factor by which the dataset must grow under one-pass training to achieve the same test loss as $K$-epoch training. Our analysis precisely characterizes the scaling behavior of $E(K, N)$ for SGD in linear regression under either strong convexity or Zipf-distributed data: (1) When $K$ is small, we prove that $E(K, N) \approx K$, indicating that every new epoch yields a linear gain; (2) As $K$ increases, $E(K, N)$ plateaus at a problem-dependent value that grows with $N$ ($\Theta(\log N)$ for the strongly-convex case), implying that larger datasets can be repeated more times before the marginal benefit vanishes. These theoretical findings point out a neglected factor in a recent empirical study (Muennighoff et al. (2023)), which claimed that training LLMs for up to $4$ epochs results in negligible loss differences compared to using fresh data at each step, \textit{i.e.}, $E(K, N) \approx K$ for $K \le 4$ in our notation. Supported by further empirical validation with LLMs, our results reveal that the maximum $K$ value for which $E(K, N) \approx K$ in fact depends on the data size and distribution, and underscore the need to explicitly model both factors in future studies of scaling laws with data reuse.

arXiv:2511.13465v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Since the 21st century, artificial intelligence has been leading a new round of industrial revolution. Under the training framework, the optimization algorithm aims to stably converge high-dimensional optimization to local and even global minima. Entering the era of large language models, although the scale of model parameters and data has increased, Adam remains the mainstream optimization algorithm. However, compared with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) based optimization algorithms, Adam is more likely to converge to non-flat minima. To address this issue, the AdamX algorithm is proposed. Its core innovation lies in the proposition of a novel type of second-order moment estimation exponential decay rate, which gradually weakens the learning step correction strength as training progresses, and degrades to SGD in the stable training period, thereby improving the stability of training in the stable period and possibly enhancing generalization ability. Experimental results show that our second-order moment estimation exponential decay rate is better than the current second-order moment estimation exponential decay rate, and AdamX can stably outperform Adam and its variants in terms of performance. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/mengzhu0308/AdamX.

arXiv:2511.13243v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multimodal Model Editing (MMED) aims to correct erroneous knowledge in multimodal models. Existing evaluation methods, adapted from textual model editing, overstate success by relying on low-similarity or random inputs, obscure overfitting. We propose a comprehensive locality evaluation framework, covering three key dimensions: random-image locality, no-image locality, and consistent-image locality, operationalized through seven distinct data types, enabling a detailed and structured analysis of multimodal edits. We introduce De-VQA, a dynamic evaluation for visual question answering, uncovering a phenomenon we term transient blindness, overfitting to edit-similar text while ignoring visuals. Token analysis shows edits disproportionately affect textual tokens. We propose locality-aware adversarial losses to balance cross-modal representations. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms existing baselines, reducing transient blindness and improving locality by 17% on average.