arXiv:2605.08705v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Unbalanced optimal transport extends classical optimal transport to measures with different total masses, but statistical guarantees for estimation of the transport map and the growth map remain limited. We study unbalanced optimal transport with quadratic cost and Kullback-Leibler marginal penalties and argue that the natural target of estimation is a transport-growth pair. Consequently, we develop two estimators for the transport-growth pair under two setups: a nearest-neighbor estimator for transporting between general densities, and a kernel-based estimator for transporting between smooth densities. We prove that the kernel-based estimator achieves the minimax optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor by deriving a matching lower bound on the minimax risk. Our main technical contribution is a reduction of estimation to a stability bound on the unbalanced optimal transport value. This bound controls the transport map and growth map risks through the duality gap of the true dual potentials for the estimated measures. These results provide a statistical foundation for estimation of the transport-growth pair in unbalanced optimal transport.