arXiv:2611.13621v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Image manipulation localization must jointly exploit semantic structure and noise-sensitive forensic evidence. However, the effects of spatial correspondence, matching quality, and interaction order are often conflated. Existing semantic-forensic fusion methods provide complementary representations, but do not explicitly preserve quality-mismatch information during spatial correspondence or adaptively select the order in which information is propagated across branches. We propose PUMA (Probability-constrained Unbalanced Matching and Aggregation), which combines spatially constrained unbalanced optimal transport with position-wise convex selection between two sequential operators through a shared positional interface. Before normalization, PUMA retains signed transport-mass residuals, constructs row-stochastic cross-branch and within-noise-branch operators, and updates noise features through a gated residual path. PUMA achieves strong localization results on four test sets, with scores on COVERAGE and NIST16 exceeding the published results of the representative methods listed in our comparison. The experiments support the utility of local matching states and adaptive sequential interaction for cross-source localization and several post-processing conditions.