paper
arXiv cs.AI
October 31st, 2026 at 4:00 AM

IMPACT: Inverter-Informed Multimodal Learning for Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting

arXiv:2610.40418v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This work develops a physics-informed multimodal deep learning framework for 10- to 110-minute-ahead probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting. The forecasting model is built on a four-branch architecture that separately encodes plant-level temporal history and inverter-level spatial cloud dynamics through a graph attention encoder with a learned adjacency, known-future solar geometry, and the current meteorological state, fused through gated cross-attention. The geometry branch adds two forward-looking physical signals, spatial cloud heterogeneity and inverter ramp-down activity, each empirically weighted toward the horizon where it is most predictive. The decoder anchors its prediction to a smart persistence baseline, learning a horizon-conditioned correction, and the resulting quantile forecasts are calibrated online through a kernel-weighted adaptive conformal calibration step. The proposed model outperforms all 14 baselines, achieving a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.2950, 0.099 above the next-best model. A branch-composition ablation shows that every branch contributes positively and the model retains substantial skill in challenging overcast and variable sky conditions (FSS 0.198 and 0.255).

#ai

Get stories like this every Monday

The week's most important AI news in one email. Free, unsubscribe anytime.

Score: 2.94

Engagement proxy: 0

Canonical link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40418